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人们对通缩风险的关注可能是错误的

2019/06/28 10:11
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对照中文英文原文
也许是时候问问2%的通胀目标是否已经失去了作用。

Central banks around the world are pivoting toward easier monetary policy. In some countries this means rates are falling below previous record lows, and in the U.S. the Federal Reserve has paused a rate-hiking campaign and now appears more likely to lower rates than raise them further. Unfortunately, there is little evidence to suggest that lower and lower policy rates are successfully generating either better real growth outcomes or higher inflation.

世界各国央行都在转向宽松的货币政策。在一些国家,这意味着利率正在跌破此前的历史低点,而在美国,美联储已经暂停了加息行动,现在看来更有可能降息而不是进一步加息。不幸的是,几乎没有证据表明,越来越低的政策利率正成功地产生更好的实际增长结果,或更高的通胀。

Yet in pursuit of their 2% inflation target, major central banks seem willing to exhaust monetary policy “ammunition” at a time when economic output is at – or above – potential. In some countries, this policy stance has the potential to reduce monetary policy effectiveness, create imbalances that may sow the seeds for the next crisis, and leave central banks powerless to respond to that crisis. Perhaps it’s time to ask whether the 2% inflation target has outlived its usefulness.

然而,为了追求2%的通胀目标,各大央行似乎愿意在经济产出处于或高于潜在水平之际,用尽货币政策“弹药”。在一些国家,这种政策立场可能会降低货币政策的有效性,造成可能为下一场危机埋下种子的失衡,并让央行无力应对那场危机。也许是时候问问2%的通胀目标是否已经失去了作用。

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