童话故事还是恐怖故事? 手把手教你自己为特斯拉做估值

2020/02/20 09:01
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视频中,达摩达兰从增长杠杆、盈利能力杠杆、投资效率杠杆风险杠杆出发,让观众自行选择自己愿意相信的“数字”,来对特斯拉进行主观的估值。

点击此处浏览视频,视频来自达摩达兰Youtube频道。

A week ago (January 30), I wrote a post on Tesla, where I valued the stock at $427 and said that I had sold my stock for $640. In the next two trading days, the stock zoomed to $900, and as is always the case with Tesla, I heard from both sides of the divide, with bulls accusing me of missing its true potential and bears arguing that I had gone over to the dark side. While I argued that this was just my value for Tesla, driving my decision, not the value driving others, I guess that did not come through, In this post, I am reframing the valuation in terms of four key levers: growth, profitability, investment efficiency and risk, and you can pick your own story for Tesla and I will value your story. So, good luck and let's get started.

一周前(130日),我就特斯拉写了一篇文章,对特斯拉给出了427美元的估值,并自陈以640美元的价格卖出。 在随后的两个交易日中,这支股票飙升至900美元,而多空双方都对我做出了抨击,多头指责我错过了这支股票真正的潜力,而空头则指责我倒向了黑暗面——在特斯拉话题上我的遭遇一贯如此。虽然我说过,这只是我自己对特斯拉的估值,驱动的也只是我个人的决定,而不该影响他人对特斯拉的投资,但我想人们并没有领会这一点。在这篇文章中,我将根据四个关键杠杆来塑造估值框架:增长、盈利能力、投资效率和风险,你可以从中为特斯拉挑选一个你自己的故事,而我会根据你的选择给出相应的估值。 那么,祝你好运,让我们开始吧。

(00:00) Welcome back.

欢迎回到我的频道

It's been only a week since I valued Tesla last Thursday,

自上周四我对特斯拉估值以来,刚过一周

and I was hoping not to come back to the stock.

而我本希望短期内不用再讨论这支股票

To be quite honest, I've lots of stuff to do, I need to do my data update post,

坦白地说,我有一堆事情要做,我得继续写我的数据更新文章

but in a sense, what's happened over the week almost forces me to come back to the stock.

但某种意义上讲,过去一周发生的事使我不得不重返特斯拉的话题

You know, just very quickly reviewing, last Thursday, which was the 29th of January,

迅速做一点前情提要,上周四,也就是129

I posted that I sold Tesla for $640,

我发表文章,自陈以640美元的价格卖出特斯拉

and I based it on a valuation I did where I valued the stock at around $430.

这一决定基于我当时给出的430美元估值

And just to show you how bad my timing is,

而很快你就会发现我的择时有多么糟糕

and I admitted to it, I'm not good at timing these things - momentum game,

我承认,我不擅长交易择时与动量策略

the stock took off, in fact. How much?

我刚一清仓,这支股票就一飞冲天。涨了多少呢?

in the two days after I sold, the stock went up to $900.

在我卖出后的短短两天内,特斯拉股价就飙升至900美元

And of course I heard from people,

我当然收到了来自四面八方的问候

I heard from people saying "we're sorry you sold the stock",

有的人对我说对你卖出这支股票我们感到遗憾

and of course there're people who took issue with my valuation on both sides.

多空双方都对我的估值颇有微词

People who thought I'd been too pessimistic and that the value should really be $800, $900, $1000, $1500

有的人觉得我太悲观,认为估值应该是8001000甚至1500美元

and use the rugged (?) price rise to say "hey I told you so".

然后拿飙升后的价格来做事后诸葛

And there were people who said, "hey you've gone over to the dark side,"

还有人说你倒向了黑暗面

"this stock is worth nothing and that $430 is way too optimistic",

这支股票一文不值,430美元的估值太乐观了

especially given that I'd valued the stock at $190.

尤其是考虑到我之前对特斯拉给出过190美元的估值

Now I don't know whether I'd conveyed this,

不知道我之前是不是没表达清楚

but that value of the company, it is MY valuation, it is not THE valuation.

对特斯拉这家公司的估值,是我自己的估值,而非不容辩驳的估值

I'm not saying I know the story, I don't have a crystal ball, I don't know what's going to happen.

我从不以权威自居,我没有水晶球,我也不知道未来会发生什么

And I said, "you know what, I could be wrong", your story could be different, your value could be different,

而我说过我也会犯错,你讲的故事不同,你的估值也会不同

I don't think people got that abstraction, because they continue to contest,

我觉得人们没能领会这一点,因为他们还在争论不休

"assumptions must have warranty revenues, higher margins, lower..." etc.

假设中得包含保修营收,更高的利润率,更低的...等等

So what I thought I'd do today is actually create a do-it-yourself valuation of Tesla,

所以我觉得,今天我该做的是制作一套特斯拉的DIY估值框架

in other words, rather than me tell my story about Tesla, which I've already done,

换句话说,与其让我来讲我的特斯拉故事(我也这么做过了)

why don't you tell your own story, because in a sense this is a company where we all have strong views.

不如你来讲你自己的故事,因为对特斯拉这家公司,大家本就各执己见

(01:55) So let me show you the valuation I had, you know, week ago,

首先来展示一下一周前我所做的估值

and then we can use it as a launching pad.

然后我们可以把它当作跳板

I basically built a pretty successful automobile company.

我所做的其实就是塑造一家非常成功的车企

I started with revenues of about 125 billion.

从假设营收能达到约1250亿美元开始

I gave the margins of 12%, significantly higher than a typical automobile company.

将利润率设定为12%,显著高于一般车企水平

I actually let them reinvest very little for the next five years because of excess capacity,

鉴于存在过剩产能,我预计特斯拉未来五年只需要进行很少的再投资

and I gave them the cost of capital of an automobile company.

然后我把资本成本设定在了一般车企水平

I put in a 10% chance that they could fail

我把破产概率设为10%

because they're still barely making money and have a lot of debt.

因为特斯拉现在还只能勉强盈利,而且背负着很多债务

So that's a $430 value.

最后得出了430美元的估值

And when you look at this, especially if you are not from -

而当你在看这张表的时候,如果你不具备这方面的——

if you find numbers - you know

如果你觉得数字看着很——你懂的

you either find it off-putting because you don't like DCF,

你要么因为不喜欢计算贴现现金流而对这张表望而生畏

you don't like this many numbers in a page - I get it.

要么就是不喜欢一张表上有那么多数字——这我明白

(02:42) So here's what I'm going to do:

所以我决定换一种方法:

I'm going to take my story and break it up into the four levers that drive that value.

我将把我的故事拆分为四个价值杠杆

So there are a lot of numbers in that page but there are four levers that drive the value.

虽然表上的数字很多,但驱动价值的其实就是这四个杠杆

The first is the growth lever, the growth lever is controlled by what kind of revenue growth rate I use,

第一个是增长杠杆,增长杠杆由我选用的营收增长率来控制

in my story, I used the growth rate that allowed me to have $125 billion in revenues in 2030,

在我的故事中,我选用的是能让我在2030年推算出1250亿营收的增长率

that's five times larger than the revenues today.

也就是比今天高五倍的营收

The second lever is the profitability lever, which is as the company grows, what kind of margin should I expect to see,

第二个是盈利能力杠杆,也就是随着公司增长我所预期的利润率

and I gave Tesla 12% margins again by 2025,

我假设特斯拉在2025年能达到12%的利润率

so the margin improvement happens pretty quickly.

也就意味着利润率应当得到迅速改善

The third lever is - to grow you got to reinvest,

第三个杠杆是——要获得增长就得进行再投资

so the third lever is the investment efficiency lever,

所以第三个杠杆是投资效率杠杆

how much will they need to reinvest to get to that lever,

也就是为了达到理想的效率水平,特斯拉需要多少钱进行再投资

and I was again optimistic, I assumed that at least for the next five years,

对此我还是乐观的,我假设至少在未来五年中

given that they have some excess capacity built-in already,

鉴于特斯拉存在一部分过剩产能

that they can get away by investing - for every dollar they invest, three dollars in revenues.

它只需达到每投资1美元就产生3美元营收的水平

And the fourth lever is the risk lever, and there are two inputs I use.

第四个杠杆是风险杠杆,而这当中我要用到两项输入

One is the cost of capital where I gave Tesla 6.9% - about 7% cost of capital,

一项是资本成本,我为特斯拉给出了6.9%——大约7%的资本成本

and likelihood of failure that the company will not make it as a going concern

另一项是破产概率,也就是公司无法持续经营下去的可能性

and as I said, it's a 10% chance.

如前所述,这个概率为10%

Those are the four levers, and that's what gave me my story in my value.

上述就是四个杠杆,是它们塑造了我的估值故事

(03:58) So here's what I'm going to do.

接下来我要做的是

I'm going to take each of these levers -

我会把这些杠杆逐一——

I would like to give you some background information,

我想先为诸位提供一些背景信息

you might already know this stuff, in which case you can skip the background information,

如果你之前就已接触过这些,可以直接跳过背景信息

and you can then pick what you think is right for Tesla.

然后直接从中挑选让你满意的特斯拉故事

So let's start with revenues.

让我们从营收开始

To get a sense of how much Tesla can sell in 10 years,

为了对特斯拉十年后的销售额有个概念

let's take a look at the auto business.

我们要从汽车行业入手

Even though you might have stories about software and sales of services,

虽然你可能认为软件和服务销售额上也有故事可讲

fundamentally Tesla will get a significant portion of its revenues on automobiles.

归根结底特斯拉营收中的大头仍来源于汽车销售

How big is that market? And here you have some good news:

这片市场究竟有多大?首先是一点好消息:

If you look at the total market, it's about 2.5 trillion dollars, it is a big market.

市场总规模大约有2.5万亿美元,这是一片庞大的市场

The mild piece of bad news here: It's not growing that fast.

而一点坏消息是:这片市场增长得很慢

In fact, over the last decade, with everything - put in hybrids, electric cars -

事实上,在过去十年中,把混电、纯电车等都加总在一起

the growth rate has been about 3.5%, and it's actually, you know, it's actually slowed down in the last five years.

整个汽车市场得增长率也仅为3.5%,过去五年中还在放缓

It's a big but slow-growing market.

这是一片庞大但增长缓慢的市场

Now to get a sense of what a big automobile company looks like,

接下来,要了解一家大型车企长什么样

well let's take a look at the twenty largest, all right?

不如直接以全球二十强作为参考

So if you look at the very top of the list, you have Volkswagen and Toyota, which have almost 300 billion in revenues.

高居榜首的是大众与丰田,营收都将近3000亿美元

Towards the top of the list you have Daimler, at about 200 billion.

紧随其后的是戴姆勒,营收大约2000亿美元

You go down a little bit further down the list, you have BMW at about 100 billion.

再往下是宝马,大约1000亿美元

And then you keep going further, at the bottom of the list, you have Tesla at 25 billion.

而在这张榜单的底部,你会找到特斯拉,营收250亿美元

If you remember the story I told you in my original valuation, it was 125 billion,

回想一下,最初估值时我给出的营收预期是1250亿美元

I made them bigger than BMW, but could I make them bigger?

也就是说,我预计特斯拉的营收会比宝马还高,可还能再高些吗?

Sure, I could have given them Daimler-like revenues, or even Volkswagen-like revenues,

当然能,我完全可以给它戴姆勒水平的营收,甚至大众水平的营收

and for Volkswagen-like revenues, you get about 10 percent of the total market.

而若达到大众水平的营收,相当于约10%的市场占有率

So you have some perspective on what would revenues look like.

这样你就对特斯拉的营收情况有了大致概念

(05:38) Now of course, the other story about Tesla is it's really not an automobile company,

当然,另一个版本的特斯拉故事,则不把特斯拉作为车企估值

it's a tech company that happens to be an automobile company.

而是作为一家恰巧做汽车业务的科技公司

Okay, so to get a sense of what a big tech company would look like,

那么,为了了解一家大型科技公司长什么样

I looked at the very top of the heap, you know, I look at the FAANG stocks,

我还是去看那些尖子生,也就是所谓的FAANG股票

Facebook, Alphabet, you know, Amazon, Netflix, Google, and Apple, and I include Microsoft for good measure,

Facebook、亚马逊、苹果、奈飞和谷歌,我还把微软包括在内

and you can see already that the revenues of these companies,

然后你一眼就能看到

even though their market caps are much much much bigger than Volkswagen and Toyota,

虽然这些公司的市值远远高于大众与丰田

their revenues are actually not as high.

但营收实际上还不如汽车行业水平

One of the things you notice about tech companies is they don't get the kinds of revenues that automobile companies do,

也就是说,科技公司并没有车企那样的营收水平

because they don't sell a unit for, you know,

因为它们的客单价并不高

and Apple iPhone, even though it's expensive, it's not $50,000 or $80,000,

比如说苹果的iPhone,虽然很贵,但还没贵到五万八万美元的程度

but here's what they deliver in measures you don't see at automobile companies: they're incredibly profitable.

但同时,科技公司有而车企没有的长板,在于它们难以置信的盈利能力

Now, Amazon doesn't look profitable, but part of that is an illusion,

虽然亚马逊看上去盈利不多,但这只不过是一种错觉

because the shipping cost that they accumulate for Amazon Prime,

因为亚马逊Prime会员包邮服务积累起了巨额的账面运费成本

if you add that back, their margins are about 50%.

而如果把这些数字加回去,亚马逊的利润率高达50%

In fact, collectively, if you look at the FAANG plus Microsoft's, you get about 20%.

事实上,把FAANG加微软作为整体去看,它们的利润率高达20%

Incidentally the company that is closest to a software company here is Microsoft,

巧合的是,这些公司中最符合软件公司定义的微软

the most, perhaps the second largest market cap company in the world, but its revenue is only 130 billion.

同时也是全球市值最高、或是第二高的公司,但它的营收仅为1300亿美元

So keep that in mind, auto companies might not be as valuable, but they have big revenues,

请记住,车企虽然可能市值不如科技公司,但它们有大量营收

but their margins are not as good as the tech companies.

而它们的利润率可能不如科技公司

(07:07) So here's my first question I have for you:

接下来就是我对你提出的第一个问题:

whatever you story is for Tesla, it's an auto company,

不论你讲的是什么样的特斯拉故事,不论它是一家车企

it's an auto plus software company, an auto plus software plus or you know, ride-sharing company,

是一家车企加软件公司,还是一家车企加软件加共享出行公司

you put in whatever story you want and pick an end game.

不论你要讲什么样的故事,你都要有一个终局目标

Don't worry about growth rates,

先不用考虑增长率

think about what the revenues will look like in ten years if they succeed.

就假设特斯拉大获成功,想想十年后它会有多高的营收

It could be 65 billion, will be Renault-like;

如果是650亿美元,那就是雷诺水平

100 billion, BMW-like;

1000亿美元,就是宝马水平

150 billion, which would make them close to Ford and Honda;

1500亿美元,逼近福特和本田

200 billion, Daimler;

2000亿,戴姆勒

300 billion, Toyota and Volkswagen;

3000亿,丰田和大众

or maybe you have a story you want to tell that's different,

或者你想讲一个不一样的故事

you could make it 500 billion if you want, if you set the growth rate to 50% or 60%.

只要把增长率设到50%60%,你完全可以把营收抬到5000亿

(07:47) Now let's move to the second lever, the profitability lever.

接下来是第二个杠杆,盈利能力杠杆

Again, let's start with the business that actually are (?), the automobile business, and the news doesn't look good here.

我们还是从汽车行业入手,而该行业的盈利能力不如乐观

Automobile companies have terrible profit margins, the median margins are 3% - 4%, no matter where you look in the globe

车企的利润率往往非常糟糕,中位数利润率为3%4%

and there are lots of companies that lose money.

有很多车企还在亏钱

It is true that the Toyotas and the Volkswagens might make money,

确实像丰田、大众这样的车企还能赚到利润

but collectively this is a business that is not profitable.

但整体来看造车是个不怎么赚钱的行业

Well, the news is much better when you move to the tech companies,

而当我们把目光转向科技公司,情况就大有好转

tech companies have a median operating margin of 10.25%, and I'm including both software and hardware.

科技公司的中位数经营利润率为10.25%,这当中包括软件和硬件公司

It's even better if you look at the FAANG stocks, the most successful tech companies.

如果只看FAANG股票,也就是最成功的科技公司,情况甚至还要更好

Their aggregate operating margin - I added up the operating income for all of the FAANG stocks plus Microsoft,

它们的总和经营利润率——我把FAANG股票加微软的所有经营利润加总到一起

and added up the revenues, and I get about 20% - 19.87%.

再把它们的营收加总到一起去算,就会得到高达20% (19.87%) 的总和经营利润率

And if you focus just on software companies, the margins are even higher.

而如果只看软件公司,利润率还能更高

Now you are saying, "why are margins so much higher in tech"

你大概会问,科技公司的利润率为什么高那么多

and even the most successful pure automobile in history could never deliver margins like this,

甚至连历史上最成功的纯车企都从未达到这么高的利润率

and here's a reason.

原因如下

You are a software company and somebody orders an extra unit,

把自己想象成一家软件公司,有人下单要买一个单位的产品

let's say you are Microsoft and somebody want it right now.

比方说你是微软,而有人马上就要一套视窗操作系统

Remember you're ordering it online, there's no cost associated with the extra units, almost all profit.

考虑到这是网上交付,多售出的单位并不会造成任何成本,几乎全额都是利润

The cost of goods sold on the marginal unit is very low, that's what makes the margins high.

边际单位的销货成本非常低,这就是边际收益如此之高的原因

In contrast, for automobile company, even the most efficient ones, the cost of making a car is never going to be 5% or 10%.

相比之下,就连最高效的车企,其造车成本也永远达不到5%甚至10%的水平

You'd think, "what about a company like Apple, that sells the iPhone?"

你会想,那像苹果这样卖iPhone的公司呢?

You know that iPhone sells for about $1000, but the cost to make the iPhone is only $400, it's only 40% of revenues.

你也知道,iPhone的售价大约1000美元,但iPhone的制造成本仅为400美元,也就是不到营收的40%

There's a reason why margins are so much higher in this business.

科技行业的利润率如此之高也就情有可原了

So you ready? You can choose a margin.

现在你可以挑选特斯拉的预期利润率了

You can go with the median for the auto industry, think "that's what they are";

如果你觉得特斯拉就是一家车企,可以按照汽车行业的中位数来

you can give them some technology median, maybe it's a software company;

如果你认为它是一家软件公司,你可以给它科技公司的中位数

I don't know, that'll be really tough to make it all software, maybe they'll approach the FAANG Aggregate;

如果觉得把它当作软件公司太牵强,那它也许能达到FAANG总和利润率的水平

or maybe you believe there'll be some kind of a blended company, where the margins are going to fall somewhere between auto and technology,

而如果你觉得特斯拉会是一种混合式公司,利润率会落在汽车和科技行业水平之间

that's basically what I assume with my 12%, because it can't be just purely an auto company.

那大概就会得到我选择的12%利润率,因为特斯拉确实不是一家纯粹的车企

(10:09) Now let's talk about investment efficiency, again let's look at the auto business.

接下来要探讨的是投资效率,我们还是从汽车行业着手

The way I'm gonna measure investment efficiency is how many dollars of revenues you'd get for every dollar of capital you invest

我衡量投资效率的方式,是每投资1美元资本能够产生多少美元营收

Again, looking at the automobile business, you can see that you have to invest a lot to grow,

再次审视汽车行业,可以看到要想增长需要大笔投资

because these assembly plants cost a lot, so you can see the median number for that is about $1.37.

因为汽车组装厂成本很高,可以看到车企的中位数投资效率约为1.37美元

A really, really efficient auto company can generates about $2.4 in revenues for every dollar of capital invested.

一个非常非常高效的车企,每投资1美元资本能够产生约2.4美元营收

Now what does it look like for tech companies?

那科技公司的情况又如何呢?

Well, the tech companies don't look much better, it's basically -

科技公司的投资效率并没有好到哪里去

if you look at tech companies, tech companies are not that efficient, partly because their revenues are not huge.

科技公司没有那么高效,部分原因在于他们的营收都不高

Now, my estimate of three dollars in revenues, it's not just higher than the most efficient automobile company,

我预计特斯拉能达到3美元营收的水平,这不仅比最高效的车企还要高

it's much higher than the averages in the tech business, for FAANG stocks.

比科技行业乃至于FAANG股票的平均水平也要高出许多

And it's aspirational,

而且我的预计数字是理想化的

because right now Tesla is not delivering three dollars in revenues for every dollar of capital,

因为当下的特斯拉每投入1美元资本根本产生不了3美元的营收

it's delivering about 1.32 dollar.

只能产生1.32美元

So you ready?

那么你做好准备了吗?

you gotta pick, measure investment efficiency by using the sales to capital.

你得从表中选出一个投资效率,用销售额资本比来表示

Remember, the way we use this is the lower the number, the less efficient you are,

记住,这张表的读法是,数字越小,效率越低

the more you have to spend to get the same growth rate

得到同一增长率所需投入的资本就越多

the higher the number, the more efficient.

而数字越大,效率则越高

So I'm giving you a range of choices,

我给出了一系列选择

auto industry first quartile, the median, the third quartile,

汽车行业第一四分位数,中位数,第三四分位数

technology, software, the FAANG stocks which don't look that great in terms of efficiency

科技行业,软件行业,以及效率其实不怎么样的FAANG股票

and of course, you could then override all of these and create a special company,

当然,你也可以跳过所有这些选择,将特斯拉视作一家特殊的公司

a company that you think has never been seen before.

一家在你看来前无古人的公司

(11:43) Finally let's talk about the cost of capital.

最后让我们来探讨资本成本

Cost of capital - people have a very difficult time getting perspective,

资本成本——人们很难把握这一概念

you ask people what a typical cost of capital is, you get numbers that actually are not even close to reality.

如果你问人们资本成本一般有多高,你得到的数字往往与现实大相径庭

So what I do is I do a histogram of cost of capital for all companies globally, 43,000 companies,

所以我要做的,是用全球所有43000家公司的资本成本做一张直方图

and here's the distribution:

而它的分布情况如图所示:

in the median cost of capital for a global company in dollar terms, at the start of 2020 was 7.58%.

2020年初全球公司资本成本的中位数(按美元计)为7.58%

In fact, look at that distribution, look at 80% of companies have cost of capital that fall between 6% and 11%.

事实上,从分布上看,有80%公司的资本成本落在6%11%之间

I mean this is not a huge range,

这个区间并不是很宽

what I'm trying to say is if you are valuing Tesla and giving it a 20% cost of capital,

我想说的是,如果你在给特斯拉估值的时候设下了20%的资本成本

that's way out of the distribution, so this table is just to get perspective.

其实已经远远超出了分布区间,所以这张图可以让你对此有个概念

And if you look at the cost of capital for the different businesses, automobile cost of capital is only 6.94%.

如果按照行业划分考察资本成本,汽车行业的资本成本仅为6.94%

Tech company's cost of capital is much higher, it's riskier.

科技公司的资本成本要高得多,因为风险也大得多

All companies globally, the median cost of capital is 7.58%, the first quartile is 6.27%,

全球所有公司资本成本的中位数为7.58%,第一四分位数为6.27%

a higher cost of capital will be 8.71%,

更高的资本成本可以到8.71%

or you can directly put a cost of capital that you think is right.

或者你也可以直接给出你认为正确的资本成本

As for the likelihood of failure, maybe you believe that, you know, Elon Musk

至于破产概率,或许你相信埃隆·马斯克

when he says the company has turned the corner,

相信他所说的公司已经熬过至暗时刻

the earnings are going to be positive, we're gonna be cashflow positive,

盈利很快就会转正,现金流也会转正

in which case they're not gonna default,

若果真如此,特斯拉债务违约的概率就是零

or you can say, "look we're going to bounce back and forth"

或者即便身为乐观主义者的你

even if you're an optimist,

也会说特斯拉的情况还是会时好时坏

you have a lot of debt, you have convertible debt,

特斯拉背负着很多债务,其中部分是可转债

and the stock price drops, those dangers are going to come back,

而当股价下跌时,这些威胁又会卷土重来

and attached a 10%;

所以认为破产概率是10%

if you are a money loser and you're worried about prices really dropping,

如果你手上的特斯拉股票浮亏,担心股价还要进一步下探

you might make it even higher, 20%;

你可能会觉得破产概率更高,达到20%

or if you really believe revenue growth is going to drop off, then Tesla is going to be in big trouble,

或者你真心觉得营收增长将一落千丈,那特斯拉就真的遇上大麻烦了

because they need growth to bail them out, the probability could be 50%.

因为他们需要增长来摆脱困境,破产概率可达50%

So make a choice on both of those variables.

总之,你可以从上述两个变量种做出选择

(13:31) So assuming you made those choices

假设你都已经选好了

and obviously couldn't have made them while you were listening to me, that was too fast,

当然你不可能在我讲话的这阵功夫就做好了选择,那太轻率了

maybe you want to pause this presentation, go make those choices and come back,

也许你应该先把视频暂停,去好好选一选再回来

the values you gonna get are going to reflect your choices.

接下来你得到的估值将会反映你的选择

So I'm not saying one is right, one is wrong,

接下来呈现的估值场景不分优劣

but the first three scenarios are pure auto scenarios,

首先是三个纯车企场景

one is you give Tesla BMW-like revenues,

一个是对特斯拉给出宝马水平的营收

you give it the margins and investment efficiency of a very good automobile company in 75th percentile,

75百分位数的优秀车企的利润率和投资效率

and the cost of capital of an auto company,

以及一般车企水平的资本成本

the value per share you get is $106 per share.

那么你得到的估值将是每股106美元

For a stock traded at $700, you're in big trouble.

对于一支交易价已经高达700美元的股票来说,这很成问题

Even if you give them 200 or 300 billion in revenues,

即便你对特斯拉给出2000亿或3000亿美元的营收预期

the value per share rises only to $330.

估值也只会增长到每股330美元

If you think of Tesla as an auto company front and center,

所以如果你只是把特斯拉看作一家彻头彻尾的车企

then you're gonna find Tesla to be overvalued.

你会发现特斯拉被大幅高估

This is why when you see these comparisons of Tesla to Ford and GM, it's a waste of time.

这也是为什么你不用浪费时间拿特斯拉与福特、通用汽车作比较

Of course you will not buy Tesla if that's your comparison.

如果你这么作比较,你本来也不会买进特斯拉

(14:32) Of course you might take a different perspective that Tesla is an auto company with a tech twist,

当然,你可能抱着不同的视角,认为特斯拉是一家有科技基因的车企

and then the next three scenarios, what I did - I've given them auto company revenues,

那么接下来的三个场景,对特斯拉给出了车企的营收

you need that because you need the big revenues,

因为你还是需要巨额营收

but I've given them tech company margins and tech company investment efficiency.

但同时特斯拉获得了科技公司的利润率和投资效率

I also have to give them a tech company cost of capital.

因此也必须给特斯拉一般科技公司水平的资本成本

And if I do that the value actually doesn't budge that much.

但即便是这样做,估值还是没有多大提升

In fact, I get higher margins but it's overwhelmed by the higher risk,

事实上,获得更高利润率的同时,更高的风险也将是压倒性的

my values ranges from $110 to $300 per share, that's not gonna do it.

这三个场景的估值从每股110美元到300美元不等,这可不行

(15:04) There's a third group of scenarios, what if you think Tesla is going to be the next great stock.

第三组场景,则以你相信特斯拉会是下一支牛股为出发点

Well let's make them look like the FAANG stocks,

让我们把特斯拉往FAANG股票上靠拢

basically I give them auto company revenues again,

首先还是对特斯拉给出车企的营收

because remember the FAANG stocks don't have huge revenues,

因为要记得FAANG股票并没有巨额营收

but I give them FAANG stocks' margins and FAANG stocks' investment efficiency,

但同时特斯拉获得了FAANG股票的利润率和投资效率

and I give them a tech company cost of capital.

并给它一般科技公司水平的资本成本

Now we're starting to see the value move,

这下子估值开始有了可观的提高

the value moves to $459, if you have BMW like revenues,

如果你对特斯拉给出宝马水平的营收,估值将上浮到每股459美元

and the stock would be $1200 if they have revenues like Toyota.

如果营收能达到丰田水平,估值还将进一步上浮到每股1200美元

(15:38) And finally, if you give them——and this is I think you pick and choose the best possible scenario.

最后,是所有选择都按最高配置来的场景

Not just FAANG but you know, you pick your best scenario.

不只局限于FAANG的水平,而是所能挑选的最佳场景

You have revenues like Toyota, margins - median - like a software company,

这样的特斯拉得有丰田水平的营收,软件公司中位数水平的利润率

you are a revolutionary manufacturing company,

(就投资效率而言)得是一家革命性的制造业公司

and your cost of capital is an auto cost of capital.

以及车企水平的资本成本

The value per share you get is $2105.

这样得到的估值为每股2105美元

(16:03) At this stage you are saying, well, therefore whatever I do is okay, right?

走到这一步,你大概会问,那岂不是我想用什么数字都可以?

Well, you know, the stories are giving you different values,

确实,通过这些故事你可以得出不同的估值

but they are stories, and not all of them are equally possible, plausible and probable.

但它们不过是故事,可能性、合理性和发生概率也不尽相同

Now, in fact, they are the three-part test I use:

事实上,这也是我常用的三段测试:

is it possible, is it plausible, probable?

这个故事可能发生吗,有合理性吗,发生的概率高吗?

With each of these stories, there are questions you will need to answer,

上述的所有故事,都得回答这样的问题

and I can't answer them for you, because these are your stories.

而我不能替你作答,因为你有自己想讲的故事

With the big auto stories, the question is

如果讲的是大型车企故事,要回答的问题是

whether Tesla could climb to the very top of the auto revenue ranks,

特斯拉是否能够一路过关斩将夺得汽车行业营收排行的榜首

while having margins that are usually - which usually is reserved for mass-market auto companies, Volkswagen and Toyota,

同时还具备只有大众车企,比如大众和丰田才能达到的利润率

while earning operating margins that are usually reserved for luxury auto companies. So can it combine that?

还要具备只有奢侈车企才能达到的经营利润率。鱼翅熊掌可以兼得吗?

If your story is that it's a techy auto company, the key question becomes

如果讲的是有科技基因的车企故事,要回答的问题就变成

whether you can get the bulk of your revenues from automobiles,

特斯拉能否在从汽车业务获得大部分营收的同时

while behaving like a tech company in every other dimension.

在所有其他方面都表现得像个科技公司

Well if you think it's a FAANGy stock,

如果你觉得特斯拉是一支FAANG式的股票

I don't even know if that's the right word to use,

(我都不知道有没有这种说法)

the big question becomes

要回答的问题就变成

whether you should actually invest in a stock on the expectation that it's going to be the next great stock.

你该不该仅凭这一定会是下一支大牛股的预期就去投资这支股票

You'd think, "why not?"

你会想为什么不行?

Well then you've set yourself up for disappointment, right?

如果这么去做投资的话,岂不是自讨没趣?

Because if it becomes the next great stock, you just got what was expected,

如果特斯拉真的是下一支大牛股,也只不过是达到期望值而已

and if it doesn't, it's all downside.

而如果预期落空,就只剩下坡路可走了

And finally, what make your own, no - it's your Frankenstein company, right?

最后一种故事,就是要把特斯拉塑造一家科学怪人公司,不是吗?

You picked the best of each input.

你想在每一项输入上都拿下最好的选择

The question I am gonna ask is,

那我就要问了

can you create a company that earns revenues like Toyota,

你真的能塑造出一家营收比肩丰田

generates margins like Microsoft,

利润率看齐微软

invests like no other manufacturing company in history,

投资回报远超历史上所有制造业同行

and has the low cost of capital of an automobile company.

还能有车企水平的低资本成本的公司吗?

I'm not trying to prejudge this,

我不是在对这种故事下论断

but I'm saying you have to ask the key questions about your own story.

但你在讲故事之前,得扪心自问能回答得上这些问题吗

(17:48) So finally, a couple of things I want to kind of talk about before we end this session.

最后,在这堂课结束前我还想谈几点事情

One is, since I sold Tesla, I've been asked, "do you regret it?"

其一,因为我已卖出特斯拉,总有人会问你后悔吗?

And you might not believe me, but I don't,

你可能不信,但我一点都不后悔

I bought Tesla in June of 2019 because I thought it was undervalued.

20196月我买进特斯拉,是因为我觉得它被低估了

I sold Tesla because I thought it was overvalued.

我卖出特斯拉,是因为我觉得它被高估了

I have to play the game I came to play.

我得按自己的策略行事

If I abandoned the philosophy that I have,

如果我背弃了自己的投资哲学

it might not even work,

就算它不怎么管用

but it's my philosophy, it's all I have.

它也是我自己的投资哲学

And if I abandon it because I want to play the momentum game, a game that I'm terrible at

如果我背弃了它,就为了能够采用自己并不擅长的动量策略

Then even if I make a little more money on this, think of what I've lost,

那么即使我从中赚了点小钱,我失去的要多得多

I've lost my core beliefs, and I'm not willing to do that.

我丧失的将是我的核心观念,而对此我丝毫不愿让步

And the other thing is, whenever I write about Tesla, I duck for cover,

其二,每当我就特斯拉写文章的时候,我都会成为过街老鼠

because, I mean, I get assaulted from every side,

因为我总是受到来自四面八方的谩骂抨击

I mean can we disagree without being disagreeable?

我们就不能体面地各持己见吗?

This is just an investment in a world

在这个因政治、宗教和文化而割裂的世界里

where we're divide on politics and religion and culture,

特斯拉不过就是一笔投资而已

do we have to add investing to the mix?

有必要把投资也拉入纷争吗?

I mean, I know if you are holding onto Tesla, and when I sold,

我知道你可能是特斯拉的死多头

I mean, the fact that I sold doesn't make your profits go away,

但我卖出股票也不会让你的利润凭空消失

I wish you the best, I hope you make a lot more money,

我祝你好运,希望你能赚上大钱

and I'm not going to begrudge you on that.

我也不会对你记恨在心

And if you sold short and you've lost money,

而如果你是特斯拉的死空头还亏了钱

I have no joy out of your losses,

你的亏损并不会让我感到开心

I'm not going to dance on your, you know, I'm not going to do some celebratory dance in it, a touchdown dance or something,

我更不会去坟头蹦迪

Why?

知道为什么吗?

Well, how do I benefit from you losing money?

你亏钱对我又有什么好处呢?

But, you know, I find there's so much inbuilt anger with the stock on both sides,

然而,特斯拉的多空双方还是戾气太重

that's almost impossible to have a serious debate.

要进行严肃的辩论几乎是不可能的

And finally, as far as I'm concerned, Tesla is a fascinating company,

最后,起码在我看来,特斯拉是一家令人着迷的公司

I'm gonna keep coming back and value it.

我会常来看看,并对特斯拉估值

I might buy it in the future, I might not buy it in the future, but here's what I can promise you:

将来我也许还会买进特斯拉,也许不会,但有一点我可以保证:

it is not something I want to lose sleep and friends over.

我不会因为特斯拉辗转反侧,也不会因它与人翻脸

Thank you very much for listening.

非常感谢你的收看

评论
YOKO
2020/02/20 18:01
YOKO
2020/02/20 18:02
YOKO 回复YOKO
2020/02/20 18:03
意可
2020/03/08 10:40
这个wacc估值很客观 很多机构wacc都偏高
沈耀宗
2020/02/22 00:18